They probably didn't go to business school.They were either math, computer science or engineering majors.Aaron did share the characteristics most of the SuperForecaster angels share: "These extraordinary investors make a profit on two-thirds of their positions and one in five of their investments returns over 10X," Aaron explained.Īaron declined to share the names of these SuperForecasters, with the exception of Sam Altman, the OpenAI cofounder and CEO. Instead, it finds the 255,559 investors in its database much more useful for determining a startup's success, especially a tiny number of just about 300 top angel investors and firms it calls "SuperForecasters." ![]() "Our AI eliminates about 99% of all early-stage companies from consideration, because our data predicts these companies have a higher probability of failure."Īnother surprising thing about TRAC's model is it does not value founders as predictive. "Our algorithms are not really selecting needles from a haystack, as much as removing all the hay," Aaron explained. "This is the first time we have shared the 'family jewels' or our secret sauce," said Aaron, who at age 74 jokes he is the oldest person ever to start a venture fund.Ī few things are surprising about TRAC's model, which is based on over 30 sources of both public and private data and Aaron calls "Moneyball for venture capital."įor one thing, the firm says it is much more effective to focus on which startups are not likely to succeed versus picking the winners. TRAC agreed to reveal 30 of the startups its model identified exclusively with Insider, and also pull back the curtain on its methodology. The firm developed a propriety model that uses AI to predict which early-stage startups are most likely to become unicorns, which are companies valued at more than a billion dollars. ![]() This story is available exclusively to Business InsiderĪnd start reading now. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
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